Analyze the weakness of the sustainable development of China's power industry

Recently, some experts said that due to the low profit level of the power industry as a whole, the high debt ratio of power generation companies, the sharp drop in thermal power investment, the contradiction between coal and electricity prices and the persistence of power supply and demand tensions, the sustainable development capacity of China's power industry has declined. situation.

The overall low profit level of the power industry shows that since 2002, the profit level of China's power industry has gradually declined. In 2009, the total asset profit rate was 1.9%, far below the level of 9.3% in the coal industry and 12.8% in the oil industry. Since 2008, the cumulative losses of the thermal power plants of the five major power generation groups have exceeded 60 billion yuan, while the coal company Shenhua Group has achieved a net profit of 46.8 billion yuan in 2010 and a net assets return rate of 14.8%, which is three times the best level of the five largest power generation groups (Huain). Since 2002, the gap between the total asset profit margin of the power industry and the petroleum and coal industries has widened, and the price mechanism for coal and electricity has been unfavorable, resulting in the transfer of profit from the power industry to the coal industry.

"Because electricity has the attributes of public goods, it is not particularly suitable to compare profit levels with other industries." Professor Xia Qing, Chairman of the School of Electrical Engineering of Tsinghua University, said, "But I think 'the sustainable development of the power industry is continuously declining'. One point of view is very reasonable."

The debt ratio of power generation companies is too high In 2011, the average debt ratio of the five largest power generation groups in the central government was 85%, while the asset-liability ratios of Shenhua and China Coal were only 40%.

It is understood that the annual growth of the total assets of the five major power generation groups during the period from 2003 to 2010 reached 24.61%, and over-scale investment led to a rapid rise in the asset-liability ratio from 2003 to 2006. “Every major power company is trying to increase investment and expand the scale of the company, so there will be some problems with the increase in the rate of assets responsible,” said Xia Qing. “The investment of the power companies is only the behavior of individual companies, but it does improve the power of our country. Installation level and power generation capacity are very obvious for this external economy. If there is no expansion of power companies, the supply of electricity in China will also be difficult to meet.”

However, due to the combined effects of over-scale investment and recent thermal power losses, the debt-to-equity ratio of thermal power companies has far exceeded the level of asset safety since 2008.

Wu Binggen, deputy director of the Office of the Huzhou City Electric Power Industry Association in Zhejiang Province, said: “The internationally recognized warning line for corporate debt ratios is 70%, and the liabilities of the five major power groups have exceeded the warning line.”

Excessive debt-to-equity ratios will make it difficult for power generation companies to raise funds, face a decline in the scale of credit, raise the cost of financing, and risk the breakage of corporate capital chains. Xia Qing said, “At present, the debt ratio of power companies is too high, they earn 100 yuan, and they also have 85 banks. This is very difficult for power companies. Although the power industry countries are in control, banks’ goals as a company are also high. In order to make profits, it will be more difficult for thermal power loans in the future."

Obviously, excessively high debt ratio is detrimental to the healthy development of power companies, and it undoubtedly poses a great threat to the sustainable development of the power industry.

The huge decline in thermal power investment due to thermal power losses, capital constraints and other reasons, the recent construction of thermal power projects in China generally declined, some of the approved thermal power projects delayed start or put into production. The data shows that the investment in thermal power has decreased for the sixth consecutive year since 2005. Among them, the investment in thermal power in 2011 was only 46.4% of that in 2005, a sharp drop of 26% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, thermal power investment dropped by another 16.8% year-on-year.

“On the one hand, the rise of new energy sources such as wind power, hydropower, and solar energy has objectively displaced the share of thermal power. On the other hand, long-term losses have made power generation companies less enthusiastic about investing in thermal power,” said Lu Bing-gen.

"However, no matter how sluggish the economy is today, how the rate of power demand growth declines, from the overall level of electricity demand, the demand is always increasing, and the burden of electricity demand is getting heavier." Xia Qing believes.

"The dramatic drop in investment in thermal power will inevitably affect China's future electricity supply. We are very worried about this." Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, told the China Energy News reporter.

Contradiction between coal and electricity prices persists One of the reasons for the persistent shortage of electricity in some regions in China last year was coal-fired power plant shutdown. In addition, the unit fuel cost of thermal power plants in certain regions has exceeded the benchmark price, the willingness of power plants to generate electricity has decreased, the stock of coal is insufficient, and the power plant is incapable. Buy coal.

Today, the situation has undergone "a dramatic change." Information such as the continuous increase of coal inventory in power plants and the backlog of coal in ports has been reported frequently, and the price of coal dropped once and for all. The latest issue of the Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index (report period from August 1 to August 7) ​​shows that the comprehensive average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim 5,500 kcal market is reported at RMB 626/ton, which is lower than that of electricity. The maximum price of coal is 175 yuan/ton.

“The current coal price of 5,000 kcal in Huzhou, Zhejiang, has dropped from around 870 yuan in the same period last year to around 530 yuan,” Lu Bingen said.

The industry believes that coal is not only sold to thermal power companies, but also to other companies such as industry. At present, due to the economic downturn, the demand for various types of enterprises has generally declined, which makes the coal market appear to be characterized by a “buyer's market”.

“Either coal prices are rapidly rising or falling rapidly, they are just a kind of shock in the coal and electricity markets, and they are moving from one extreme to the other.” Xia Qing believes that “the fundamental contradiction of 'coal power in the market coal' has not been resolved. ."

Some experts told reporters, “Although electricity has the nature of public goods and concerns millions of households, oil and natural gas are also related to millions of households. Although the rise in oil prices has greatly promoted the rise of CPI, the government is still Efforts have been made to promote the market-oriented reform of the oil pricing mechanism. However, at present, the power industry still relies on the government alone to manage and control it."

"Because of the existence of the problem of 'market coal planned electricity' in essence and the fact that the current investment in thermal power is falling sharply, the sustainable development capability of China's power industry is indeed very problematic," said Xia Qing.