Warm-up before the peak season of the air-conditioning industry has begun a price war or can not be fired

Last week, Suning released a white paper for the air-conditioning industry in 2012. Gree announced two years of free replacement of inverter air conditioners; earlier this month, Chigo released new products for variable frequency cloud air conditioners.

Due to high inventory levels and sluggish demand, there are experts predicting that this year's air-conditioning season will open or usher in fierce price competition. A mainstream channel person also privately said that the excess capacity in the air-conditioning industry will not escape the price war this year.

Will the air-conditioning industry fight this year's price war?

In the 2011 frozen year (September 2010 to 2011 8), domestic sales of air conditioners increased by nearly 40% year-on-year to 53 million units, a record high. However, with the end of energy-saving policies, the sales of air-conditioners in the second half of last year turned sharply. The old-for-new policy was also terminated at the end of December last year. Coupled with the lack of optimism in the macroeconomic environment and weak consumer demand, the negative growth in the domestic sales of air-conditioners in the first quarter of 2012 was a foregone conclusion.

According to Zhang Yanbin, dean and assistant general manager of AVC College, the air-conditioning industry will experience a year-on-year decline in its rate of growth after two years of rapid growth. After two years of rapid growth in 2010 and 2011, The probability of annual adjustment is relatively high. Moreover, real estate is still the focus of regulation.

According to the person in charge of an air-conditioning compressor plant, digestion for a few months, the current domestic air-conditioning inventory has been reduced from more than 20 million units at the end of last year to more than 10 million units. However, it is expected to be completely digested in March and April this year.

Of course, good factors are also beneficial. The potential demand for air-conditioning in China's tertiary and tertiary markets is still huge. The construction of new rural areas and the increase in farmers’ income will gradually make air-conditioning the standard for rural families. Moreover, one household will not only install one air-conditioner; the subsidy policy for home appliances to the countryside will continue to be implemented this year. Secured housing delivery will also bring new demand - this year, the country will basically build 5 million sets of affordable housing, accounting for 1/3 of the total number of residential housing projects in 2012; In addition, the country is still brewing energy-saving environmental protection subsidies for the new policy.

From the perspective of supply and demand, there is a certain degree of oversupply risk in the air-conditioning industry and there is pressure to cut prices. However, other aspects contain factors that increase prices.

The first is the increase in costs. With respect to raw materials, plastic prices have risen with oil prices, compressors have been more expensive than last year due to rare earth price increases, and labor costs have also risen. "This year's air-conditioning costs are not much changed, at most a few tens of dollars. A few thousand dollars of air-conditioning, down tens of dollars is not much attractive."

This is followed by a number of listed companies' strategies for this year have changed from seeking scale to keeping profits. In the third quarter of last year, the net profit growth of Gree Electric Appliance and Midea Electric Appliances all slowed down. These two companies added Shanghai Haier, which accounted for about 70% of the domestic air-conditioning market. This year they all hope to ensure continued growth in their performance and there is no desire to stir up and participate in price wars. According to Wang Jinliang, vice president of the China Marketing Headquarters of Midea Refrigeration Appliances Group, the focus of this year's competition is full DC inverter air conditioners rather than prices.

Third, consumer trends make inverter air conditioners increasingly the mainstream of home air conditioners. As the cost of inverter air conditioners is higher than that of fixed-frequency air conditioners, price war smoke seems hard to re-emerge.

Therefore, the escalation of demand makes consumers rational. At the end of last year, some enterprises launched a split machine with RMB 1,999 and a cash machine with 2,999 yuan. A dealer said that now a variable frequency air conditioner is better than a single cold special machine.

Therefore, in the face of many uncertainties, some people in the industry believe that the price of air conditioners will remain stable this year. Even if price wars are local and regional promotions, the kind of “naked” price war should not be staged ten years ago. If small brands ignite the flames of war and mainstream brands do not participate, the market will not be able to spur wild waves.