Recent domestic thermal coal market

I. Northern port situation

As of March 6th, the CCI1 5500 kcal thermal coal price index in the northern port of China reported at 471.0 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton from the same period last week, and the price index of 5,000 kcal thermal coal in the CCI2 northern port was reported at 404.0 yuan/ton. The same period in the week fell by RMB 6./ton.

In March, Shenhua released the latest price policy and maintained a large amount of preferential policies in mid-to late-February, that is, the best price for the 5,500 kcal thermal coal coal association will be 510 yuan/ton, and 5,000 kcal/420 tons/ton.

At the same time, Shenhua has also issued two targeted preferential policies. The preferential programs in East China are as follows: 1. The users of outsourcing coal, Zhangjiagang and Xiba, which correspond to the coal export prices of Shenhua Northern Port, will be able to enjoy RMB 27/ton on the basis of the original preferential price of RMB 20/ton after the contract fulfillment rate is 80%. Discounts; 2. The overseas coal purchased at the Shenhua North Port Xishui coal closing price, and the users of the upper reaches of the Nanjing Yangtze River Bridge, can enjoy a discount of RMB 27/t on the basis of the original preferential price of RMB 20/ton after the contract cash rate reaches 50%. ;3. Exceeding the portion of the contract redemption rate, the place of delivery needs to use Zhanghuagang and Nanjing Xiba and use Shenhua's ship to pick up the goods, in order to offer 27 yuan/ton.

The preferential scheme in South China is: Outsourcing coals corresponding to the Shenhua Northern Port Sewer coal export price, subject to Shenhua Gaolan port terminal delivery, and can enjoy RMB 37/t discount on the original preferential price of RMB 20/t. .

According to industry insiders, Shenhua’s targeted preferential treatment for East China is to increase market share in East China, and the preferential treatment for Zhuodao Gaolan Port is to increase the transfer efficiency of this self-owned terminal. At the same time, by designing the use of Shenhua ships to pull goods, it also ensures that its own fleet still has sufficient supply of goods in the current sluggish market conditions.

Affected by the sluggish market demand, the quoted prices of other households also fell to varying degrees. According to the data from the Energy Price Center, as of February 28, Qinhuangdao Port's 5,500 kcal thermal coal market price was 470-480 yuan per ton, The first phase fell by 5 yuan / ton, 5000 kcal 400-410 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last week were down 10 yuan / ton.

In addition to the mainstream quotes, there are some very low prices also appear in the market, 5500 kcal thermal coal, there is a market price of FOB Jingtang Port 455 yuan / ton, 5000 kcal thermal coal, there are traders said in the FOB Qinhuangdao The price of 390 yuan/ton can be received in Hong Kong.

After the major ports announced large-scale preferential policies in February, in order to achieve favorable conditions, the northern port had a small round of concentrated pulls, and shipments increased, leading to a decline in coal inventories at ports. As of March 5, Qinhuangdao Port had 7.61 million tons of coal stocks, a drop of 1 million tons from the February high, and Caofeidian Port had a stock of 8.19 million tons, 260,000 tons lower than the February high.

A port staff member stated that the number of newly-imported ports is also decreasing. One is the control of incoming vehicles in the railway sector; the other is that the small and medium-sized coal mines in Inner Mongolia and other places have not yet resumed production; and third, large coal mines actively reduce shipments.

A Shanxi trader said that market prices have fallen to such a low level, but downstream purchases are still not positive and market confidence is generally insufficient.

II. Situation of imported coal

As of March 6, CCI8 South Port 5500 kcal Australian coal price index reported 59.80 US dollars / ton, compared with the same period last week rose 0.30 US dollars / ton, CCI7 South Port 4700 kcal Indonesia coal price index reported 53.10 US dollars / ton, compared with Weekly rose 1.10 US dollars / ton.

After Glencore announced plans to reduce production, international coal prices were supported. Reflecting the relatively tight supply of Australian coal in the market, the 5,500kcal Australian coal FOB price was maintained at a position of 53-53.5 U.S. dollars. With the rebound of international crude oil prices, the ocean freight price has also come back. The cost of the Cape ship from Newcastle to South China is around US$7.

An importer in Shanghai stated that the Australian offshore coal price of 5,500 kcal Australian coal has remained stable since the beginning of the year, and the change in landed price is mainly caused by changes in international ocean freight.

The current CIF price of 5,500 kcal Australian coal is 60-61 dollars for the CFR South Port. Due to the large decline in domestic coal prices and the expectation of continued price cuts, domestic users are not very active in purchasing imported coal.

The overall turnover of imported coal is sluggish. Some industry insiders believe that the Australian mine's limited production plan is only to increase the bargaining price of the Japan-Australia long-term contract price. The actual maximum output may not be so large.

An importer in East China stated that few coal recipients in Australia received the goods, and the downstream power plant said that it would wait until the Newcastle Port Index was lowered. The current price of the 5,500 kcal Australian coal bilge is 465 yuan/ton.

An importer in Beijing stated that although the Australian mines have successfully raised the offshore price of 6,000 kcal thermal coal, the possibility of price increases is very small for the domestic market.

Affected by the rise of Newcastle's offshore price index, the market price of 4,700 kcal Indonesian coal also showed a significant increase year after year. The current market price is FOB Kalimantan 48-49 US dollars, up 1-2 US dollars from the previous year.

An importer in Guangdong said that the amount of purchases in India in the near future is also relatively large, supporting Indonesia's coal prices.

According to an import from Guangdong, the 4700 kcal Indonesian coal miner’s quotation is generally around US$49 for the FOB Kalimantan, but the domestic power plant’s receipt price has not increased, so the transaction is difficult.

III. Southern Port Situation

The coal mines in Guangzhou have risen rapidly this week. As of March 6, the coal stock of Guangzhou Port was 2.87 million tons, an increase of 790,000 tons from the same period last week.

In terms of price, the current price increase of 5,500 kcal domestic trade coal storage is reported at 555 yuan/ton, and 5000 kcal at 485 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with the same period of last year.

The 5,500 kcal Australian coal at Guangzhou Port was quoted at 555 yuan per ton, and 4,800 Indonesian coal was quoted at 470 yuan per ton, both of which remained stable from the previous period.

In February, the northern port launched a large quantity discount, while some coal companies promised to pull goods first, and then settled at the lowest price of the market, making the purchasing enthusiasm of Guangzhou Port traders greatly improved and carrying out a concentrated wave of transportation. This week, the rush to ship arrived in Hong Kong, resulting in a rapid increase in coal inventories in Guangzhou Port, and may exceed 3 million tons again in the near future. Among the vessels arriving in Hong Kong, domestic coal is the mainstay, and there has been no apparent increase in the amount of imported coal.

Fangchenggang’s coal inventories dropped significantly. As of March 5, the port’s inventory was 4.4 million tons, which was 800,000 tons lower than the beginning of February. The number of recent arrivals to Hong Kong is relatively small, and it is expected to increase in the later days and in April.

IV. Production situation

After the Spring Festival, the thermal coal price in Shaanxi was temporarily stable. Most of the local coal mines have not yet started production. The state-owned large mines have not recovered from the atmosphere of the Spring Festival. Coal prices are the same as before the holiday and sales are sluggish.

According to a coal mine worker in Shaanxi, the thermal coal is more than 5,000 calories and the coal with sulfur less than 1 is 270 yuan/ton in cash and 280 yuan/ton in acceptance; the caloric value is more than 6,000 calories and the clean coal with sulfur less than 0.6 is 380 yuan/ton. Discount 5-10 yuan.

Coal mines in Inner Mongolia gradually resumed production, prices generally remained stable, and some coal mine pit offers were reduced by RMB 5/t. Under the environment where the price of sewer coal continues to fall, Inner Mongolia is under pressure to continue reducing prices in the short term.

A manufacturer in Inner Mongolia said that some ore mines in Ordos are still shutting down, and prices remain stable before the holiday.

Dongsheng area 6300 kcal coal pit pit tax price of 270 yuan / ton, 5500 kcal 200 yuan / ton.

Most of the mining areas in Shanxi are also in a state of resumption of production. Currently, they are actively discussing prices with downstream customers in March, and coal prices have been reduced in some areas.

V. Downstream power plant conditions

As of March 5, the six major coastal electricity inventories were 13.75 million tons, a slight increase of 550,000 tons, or 4.17%, from the same period last week, and the number of available days was 29 days, which fell from the previous period.

The inventory of major national power plants fell rapidly during the New Year. As of February 28, the national coal inventory of major power plants was 77.7 million tons, a decrease of 8.2 million tons from the end of last month.

In February-March, inland power plants were mainly destocking, while the inventory of coastal power plants was basically stable.

The sales of thermal coal in the Anhui region are relatively difficult. The acceptance price for 5000 kcal thermal coal along the Yanjiang Power Plant is 450 yuan/ton, and the inland power plant is 500 yuan/ton.

The price of electric coal received in Chongqing, Sichuan Province was RMB 0.09 per card, and downstream purchases were not positive.

In Hunan, 6000 kilocalories of low-sulfur coal cost 612 yuan/ton, and most of the local power plants are operating at high levels. In March, inventory was mainly destocked.