Owe Cloud Network Li Wei: OTT has just begun, 2017 is only the first wave of small peak

On November 14-15, the 2017 Global Home Internet Conference (GFIC) was held in Shanghai. The conference attracted 500+ companies and 3000+ professional audiences. At the GFIC 2017 Global Home Internet Conference on the afternoon of the 15th, Li Wei, president of Orville Cloud Network's assistant president and general manager of the Home Internet Division, shared Ovie with the title of "Over the OTT in the second half, the elimination was upgraded to qualifying". Cloud Network's discovery and reflection on the OTT industry.

In the OTT field, Ovid Cloud Network, as an OTT third-party data company, through the SDK and the current mainstream manufacturers on the market, is currently the most authoritative smart TV big data platform. At the meeting, Mr. Li first shared a report published by Ove Cloud Network last week, "2017 OTT Advertising Guide," she said that at the end of 2017, it was the time when the "Guide" was launched. Now there are many people on OTT. It is full of doubt whether the company has just started or is already in the second half. In terms of the realization of advertising, companies are not trying to OTT, but how to vote OTT.

OTT has just begun, 2017 is only the first wave of small peak

At the meeting, President Li introduced that OTT is a long-term development business, and 2017 is only the first wave of small peaks. Do not worry too much and don't get too excited. This is just the beginning.

From the perspective of hardware shipments, smart TVs are replacing the existing TV market at a steady rate of 30 million to 40 million per year. The same OTT box has an annual growth rate of about 10 million yuan, except this year because of Lynx's box vulnerability. Certain policy reasons have declined and the entire amount has been reduced. The OTT market is a steadily developing market.

After the terminal, look at the operation of OTT. Now most companies pay more attention to daily life. Li always shares the data map published by Ovid Cloud Network. The white curve above is the daily life of traditional TV. The line is a smart TV day, and the yellow line is the daily life of the OTT box. It can be seen in these three lines that the daily life of traditional TVs in 2017 is 130 million, that of smart TVs is 48 million, and that of OTT boxes is 25 million. 37%, 3 years later OTT is a long-term development business, after 3 years the whole OTT does not add the box, the entire intelligence terminal's daily activity reaches more than 90 million, in that condition, the television media form will change.

The yellow line underneath belongs to more than 10 million living days. The box is also sold. The box is a supplementary terminal. The replacement cost of the box itself is relatively low, and several hundred pieces can be replaced. The life cycle of the box is relatively short, about one and a half years, and it is slower to use in hardware. Users at all levels will remember to replace it, buy a TV, put it at home for at least 5 years, and the demand for getting a house for marriage may change. Generally, it will only change if it is broken. The development of OTT is not the same for different types of terminals. of.

Big screen Nuggets: Advertising is the mainstream, members, operations are complementary

OTT is the most important exporter of the Internet. Advertising is the easiest to realize. In 2016, the total number of OTT advertisements is less than 10 billion yuan. In the first half of 2017, it is close to 10 billion yuan. This year is half a year. This is a fast growing rate. . According to the shipment of smart TV boxes and the evaluation of Ove Cloud, the advertising revenue of the entire OTT will reach 16 billion in the market after three years. We all know that the stock of the patch, the number of TV terminals is limited, the number of boot is limited, and close to the content is much smaller, this is the situation of the advertising market.

In addition to advertisements, there are more members to watch. Video media are now strongly advocating that, like C-side charges, smart TVs, the total number of members is more than 10 million, and the number of members is more than 10 million. The average is 80 US dollars, this year's OTT membership income is 8 billion market. Three years later, the number of members per capita reached 50 million. What kind of evaluation logic is this? 10 million this year is less than 10% contribution rate.

In the past, the traditional cable TV payment rate was 50%. In the case of 2020, when the daily frequency of traditional TVs and the daily life of smart TVs were comparable, according to half of the traditional TV payment rate and 25% contribution rate, according to the 2020 activation amount, 200 million terminals, the entire smart TV payment rate to reach 50 million, 50 million scale, per capita value of 100 yuan, the entire membership income will reach 5 billion market size. Therefore, apart from advertising, OTT's second major source of income comes from its members, and it is also a major profit point for major TV manufacturers.

Smart TV as a family entrance, not just watching TV watching video, there are many new areas, such as games, such as e-commerce, and now the game's ability to attract gold and e-commerce's ability to attract gold has been gradually explored. For example, on top of TCL's shopping application software, the daily flow of water can reach 70,000 to 100,000 during peak hours. In this market, as long as there is an outbreak in the game, or e-commerce, or other applications, the overall market size is also Ten billion grade.

The entire OTT this year, including advertising, including members, including operating income will reach 38 billion, after 3 years in accordance with the logic of the entire data projections, the overall market operations, including member income, etc. may reach 310 billion market. In just three years, the scale of income can reach 300 billion yuan from 3 billion, a 10-fold increase.

President Li believes that in the first three years of OTT, it was more of a knockout round. The coming entrants have come in and have survived. Under the business opportunities of such a big market in the next three years, they will qualify for qualifying. The stronger players in the hierarchy will stay. There are great market opportunities in these three years.

The development of OTT in the entire market is divided into the following three stages:

The first stage is to sell television. OTT talks about operations, talks about advertising, and just sells television.

The second stage begins to operate. From 2017 to 2018, it was a small peak for selling advertisements. It was not yet a big outbreak. At this time, not only advertising but also various resources were sold.

The real maturity period should be after 2020. When the family's TVs are all updated to smart TVs, it will usher in a mature peak. This is the development of the entire industry.

OTT has changed from optional to mandatory

Now that OTT was in the previous period of time, many companies felt that they could not vote for OTT, vote on traditional TV, vote for OTV, and OTV was just a supplement. Ove Cloud Network told everyone through data that OTT has changed from optional to mandatory. Sharing the Ovie cloud network's contrasting pie chart, the largest blue color is the live TV. According to the traditional TV's daily life, just mentioned 130 million, smaller blue cuts, users in the smart TV also have to watch live Of the habits, 18.27 million live live days, there is also a part of overlapping users, and then there are exclusive users, about 20 million per day. At this level, single-cast users account for 11% of the entire TV users. If they do not vote for OTT, this part of the data is missing. 11% is just a status quo, and 11% will rise to 20% after 3 years. This is a very significant amount of data.

When comparing OTT with digital media, there are overlapped customers. 15% of users only watch OTT content on the big screen, and OTT changes from optional to mandatory. If you don't use OTT advertising, 10% to 20% Users can't cover it.

OTT is super cost-effective. In the entire smart TV platform, the daily live of traditional TV stations, CCTV's daily life is more than 60 million per day, and the OTT's daily livelihood is 11 million. From now on, its daily life is related to traditional TV. Compared with a certain gap, the rise of the curve after 3 years will reach 60% of the first-line TV. After 3 years, the entire OTT media can fully perform PK with traditional media. At this level, the flow of traditional TV has arrived, advertising revenue is still much lower, traffic is 20%, but advertising revenue only accounts for 5%, and now the control rate of the entire OTT advertising is relatively high.

EEG experiment, using science to measure value, using data to enhance trust

OveCloud.com cooperated with Capital Medical University this year and conducted a special study on the differences in the attention span of end-users. It is also known as brainwave testing, which measures the memory of people. The results show that scores below 40 points are basically monotonous. , 40 points can do a simple addition and subtraction, greater than 60 points is the exam, the highest phone more than 27%, this level is the effect of smart TV screen, the results of quantitative measurement through brain waves have a greater amount of improvement.

Many people watch the state, put the number of people, concentrate on the factors, put the coefficients of completeness into consideration, multiply, and finally get the multiple, the smart TV is 3 times that of the PC, and 4 times that of the phone and the pad, which is it The state of the effect.

In fact, there are many forms of advertising on the OTT side, including booting, including screensavers, etc. According to brainwave experiments, a division is made. The boot status and screensaver ads are the most accepted, and the most sold are in the second quadrant, and the memory is very high. High, but acceptance is relatively low.

Mr. Li said that smart TV is not just a platform. It is actually a system. In this system, more combinations can be made to achieve better results. Single-screen advertising, starting from the combination, can see the power of the combination. , The combination of advertising when the effect is better, for example, open screen + screensavers, etc., more powerful is the boot ads, the user's memory is better. The best in this is the entire set, from on-demand to on-demand in-between, to the inside of the pause, more than 5 combinations, the user's memory and the overall effect is the highest.

OTT is now very cheap, price index is the value index divided by the price index, the overall OTT price is 2.47, OTT's OTV is 1.94, and then it is divided into TA concentration, according to the absolute ratio of TA25 to 45, boot and OTV Opener is twice as much as PC, much higher than PC and pad. After all, the size of the big screen is on this side. Looking at the whole, whether it is on the TV or not, whether it is traditional media or digital media, its overall effect is better than PC.