Overall Situation Analysis of Household Appliance Industry

In November, the household appliance industry stock price trend is stronger than the broader market
Although the Shenwan Appliance Industry Index fell by 2.49 percent in November, the overall performance of the broader market in the same period was even more bleak, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index falling by 5.11% and the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 4.29%, in this weak market. 11 Shenwan Appliance Industry Index monthly outperformed the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index of 2.62 and 1.80 percentage points, respectively, and the home appliances sector's fluctuations ranked second in all the SWS industry.

Air Conditioning: Domestic sales are flat and export growth is picking up

In October, the sales volume of the air-conditioning industry increased again, and the growth rate further increased. The main reason for the improvement in the industry's growth was the apparent recovery in export growth. However, considering that the export base has fallen sharply since October last year, it has increased on this basis. The speedy recovery is also reasonable; in terms of domestic sales, the decline in the growth rate of shipments from the United States is still relatively obvious, making the industry's shipments fall in the background of a low base last year, but the domestic sales growth rate after the rejection of the United States reached 6.28%. Under the background that the terminal has not significantly improved, the industry operates more smoothly.

Ice wash: The domestic sales of refrigerators increased significantly, and washing machines shipped in line with expectations

In October, the sales volume of domestic refrigerators and refrigerators increased by 52.98% and 7.88% year-on-year, of which domestic sales substantially exceeded market expectations. We believe that on the one hand, dealers have more influence on the tail-end effect of the “home appliances going to the countryside” policy before exiting. Good expectations and increased stocking efforts; on the other hand, the relatively low base figure for the same period last year also contributed to the higher domestic sales growth rate in October this year. In October, the washing machine operation was relatively stable, with the growth rates of domestic and export shipments falling by 0.94% and 1.18%, respectively, basically in line with market expectations. On the basis of the low base in the fourth quarter of last year, we expect that the domestic sales of the industry in November is expected to achieve positive results. increase.

Black Power: There is room for growth in domestic sales, export growth is basically flat

In October, domestic sales of the LCD TV industry increased by 2.11% year-on-year, and exports fell by 0.59%. The growth rate of domestic sales was slightly lower than our expectation, and with the implementation of the new energy-saving policies, the decline in Japanese market share, and the gradual release of rural CRT replacement demand, LCD TV domestic sales are expected to gradually improve. On the panel front, panel prices are flat on December 4th, and panel prices are expected to remain flat in 13 years in the face of panel capacity expansion not obvious next year, depreciation of major manufacturers' 8th-generation lines still unfinished, and LCD TV demand in the domestic market is still expected to improve. Or slip down.

TCL Group's monthly increase is the first to maintain the industry's "look" rating

In the November monthly report, TCL Group, which we highly recommend, ranked first in the home appliance sector. Based on our optimistic expectations for the panel industry, we believe that there is still some upside for the stock price; for white power, the terminal is in the terminal. Under the background that the demand is still insufficient, the industry will show a stronger and stronger trend, leading to a stronger certainty in the growth of the leading performance, and the valuation switch of the home appliance sector in the first quarter of the calendar year will continue. It is now the best time to engage in the home appliance sector. Maintain Gree Electric Appliances, owner electronics, TCL Group and Hefei Sanyo.