Have a look at the World Energy Outlook 2010

On November 17, the Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Tian Zhongzhong released the World Energy Outlook 2010 in Beijing and predicted the world energy development trend as far as 2035. In this regard, Han Wenke, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, made a comment.

Han Wenke pointed out that the World Energy Outlook released by the International Energy Agency each year provides us with much room for thinking. This year's "Outlook" has designed three scenarios, which have comprehensively described the future and analyzed seven forward-looking hot issues in the energy field one by one. The information is large and comprehensive. At the same time, however, we should proceed from our own reality and view the World Energy Outlook 2010 objectively.

The situation in developing countries needs a specific analysis. In the Outlook, we propose to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels and consider it a win-win solution that can increase energy security, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, and bring about economic development. benefit. However, this view is mainly proposed from the perspective of the OECD countries, while developing countries need to increase their development momentum, and some still need a certain degree of subsidies. Change is a phased process.

In particular, it is necessary to point out that “Outlook” predicts global issues, and reducing global greenhouse gases is a common and differentiated responsibility. Developed countries must take the lead in deeper emission reductions and leave room for developing countries to develop by 2050. To meet the UN millennium goal - to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. However, the report does not pay enough attention to this aspect.

In addition, in terms of energy consumption estimation, there are no uniform standards for the conversion of energy products of various heat values, which may lead to related errors. The National Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission will hold a joint seminar with the IEA next year to Study this issue. The IEA's "Outlook" data comes from the department's market analysis department, rather than the agency's data statistics department. "Some data has been processed," and it is therefore up to the customer to view the "Outlook" data.

Positive for Promoting Climate Change "Outlook" believes that the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen is a step forward, but its policy decisions are not legally binding and have limitations. Although many countries have made commitments, they are limited to limiting global temperature rise. The goal of 2°C higher than before the era of industrialization had a huge gap, and there was still a long way from meeting the requirements of embarking on a sustainable energy system.

Increasing fossil fuel demand will continue to push up energy-related CO2 emissions. This trend will make it impossible to achieve the 2°C target, because the emission reduction required after 2020 will be large. In this scenario, although the global emission growth rate has gradually declined throughout the forecast period, emissions will continue to rise. In 2020, emissions will reach 34 billion tons, and in 2035 it will exceed 35 billion tons, a 21% increase from the 29 billion tons in 2008.

The failure of Copenhagen cost us at least 1 trillion dollars. In addition, global GDP will decrease by 1.9% in 2030, compared to last year's estimate of 0.9%. These differences are due to the need for more in-depth and faster emission reduction after 2020, which is caused by the slower change in energy supply and use in the early stage.

Undoubtedly, these conclusions of the "Outlook" have a positive significance in promoting the process of dealing with climate change.

The "Outlook" affirming the achievements of clean energy development in China pointed out in particular that by 2035, 3/4 of the world's electricity generation will be provided through low-carbon technologies, which is four times higher than it is now. China plays an important role in promoting low-carbon energy technologies. It can realize the reduction of the cost of low-carbon technologies, reduce the emission of carbon dioxide, and obtain economic benefits from it.

Given the large scale of China's domestic market, its efforts in increasing the share of new low-carbon energy technologies can play an important role in reducing the cost of these technologies through faster technological learning and economies of scale. At present, China has the largest investment demand and has become the leader in wind power and photovoltaic production as well as a major equipment supplier.

In the next 20 to 25 years, natural gas will certainly play a central role in meeting the world's energy needs. And China may lead us into the golden age of natural gas. China’s demand growth is fastest, at an average annual rate of 6%, and it is the largest in number, accounting for more than one-fifth of global demand growth by 2035.

Han Wenke pointed out that the "Outlook" pays special attention to China and puts some pressure on it. This is a positive signal for China's future development. The Chinese government will use reasonable factors from the "Outlook" to continuously improve its policy system.