Vendor Inventory Clears LED Prices Down 10% in Fourth Quarter of 2011

According to the latest price survey report of Trendince's LEDinside, the Q4 LED market in Q4 2011 saw a drop of about 10% in average quoted price due to inventory clearance. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2012, after the sharp decline in the previous quarter's quotation and the effect of new product launches, it is expected that the decline in the average quotation for the quarter is expected to shrink.

LEDinside expects that the mainstream LCD TV backlight specification LED components on the market in 2012 will be covered by the new 7030 package. As for the lighting industry, the price of the 5630 package will drop to a certain extent in the future, and the proportion of applications in the LED lighting market will be in the future. Gradually increase, it is estimated that in the low-power LED field, it will be pushed down to the application of LED package sizes such as 3014 and 3020 in the lighting market.

The weak market demand in the fourth quarter of 2011, together with the clearing of inventory by manufacturers, led to a significant decline in the prices of some of the applications, and the overall average price dropped by about 10%. Especially in lighting applications, LED manufacturers are facing inventory pressure, as well as the impact of low- and medium-power LED competition, resulting in a significant decline in high-power LED prices.

According to LEDinside's observation, the decline in quotations in the first quarter of 2012 showed signs of slowing down. The TV backlight specification 5630 dropped by about 4%. In 7030, without mass production, the average price does not appear to be very competitive, but if it goes well, After the mass production, it is expected that it will drop sharply by the end of the year. In terms of MNT applications, LED specifications have reached a mature stage in terms of packaging and brightness, and the quotation has also dropped to the bottom. In the first quarter of 2012, prices fell only 3 to 4%.

Another focus of the market is the notebook computer (NB). Due to the rise of Ultrabook and tablet applications, more and more manufacturers are investing in this field, which leads to a maximum drop of 8% in high-brightness 0.8tLED. In the mobile phone part, due to the gradual maturity of the specifications, the price drop is about 5-6%. As for the high-power LED segment, due to the manufacturers' commitment to specification upgrades and the elimination of old product specifications, the average offer price dropped by around 10%.

LEDinside pointed out that the new 2012 models of major TV brand manufacturers in the international market have been gradually produced in the fourth quarter of 2011, the old inventory models are gradually going to go, the current 5630 specifications are mature, quoted in the first quarter of 2012 The drop is about 4 to 5%, and the new model with a new generation of backlights will be available as soon as the end of March 2012. CCFL backlight and LED backlight have appeared in 2012, some size models are expected to show signs of zero spreads, making the penetration rate of LED-backlit LCD TVs reach 70% in 2012.

In 2012, the thickness of the LED light guide plate is still about 3mm. Therefore, the new package 7030 is expected to be the mainstream specification in 2012. Currently, Korean manufacturers are developing the fastest, but in various LED packaging plants. All specifications are not the same, regardless of the drive current or the number of wafers or fluorescent powder, the mainstream specifications will converge significantly when the products are in circulation for a period of time. Compared with the prices in the fourth quarter of 2011, it is expected that there will be a 15 to 20% decline in the second half of 2012.

Mobile phone backlighting is the earliest application that achieves 100% LED penetration. The product is also the most mature, and the drop line is maintained at about 3 to 5% per quarter. Currently, the trend of backlighting for smart phones will use fewer LEDs and higher brightness specifications, so the brightness of 0.6t is gradually moving towards 2700mcd. At present, LED backlight components for mobile phones with a size of more than 2400 mcd are almost entirely dominated by Japanese and Korean manufacturers, and the competitiveness of Taiwan plants is relatively limited.

As for the application of small pen and laptops after the tablet PC market, the product positioning has been squeezed, and many brand manufacturers have already withdrawn from the notebook computer market. According to LEDinside's survey, the mainstream notebook market portfolio is now more than 12-inch traditional NB, and 11-inch tablet PC plus Ultrabook; Ultrabook mainstream backlight specifications using low-voltage LED components (0.8tLV), due to increased input manufacturers The quotation fell by 7 to 8%. As for the LCD monitors (monitors, MNT) products, in the first quarter of 2012, brand manufacturers introduced a high-current-driven 3014 package, which can reduce the number of LED applications by about half.

As the backlight specification 5630 tends to mature and the quotation has dropped, more and more lighting application manufacturers use this specification to make LED lamps or bulbs. For high-power LED manufacturers, most of the current response methods are to compete with Korean manufacturers by introducing new product specifications and increasing brightness, and to stimulate market demand through falling prices, so it is estimated that there will still be a drop in quotes during the quarter. About 10% level.